An Expensive $10 a Week Pastime? What are the Odds?
The following is a reprint of a post that I made from my old blog Getting Out Of The Poorhouse: To find out why, see here.
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Last week a friend of mine won $20 bucks from the lottery. This was especiallysweet for her because she has been on a losing streak lately. According to her she has gone 3 weeks without winning. Now she plays the lotto twice a week, and puts down $5 each time with her regular numbers (birthdays of her kids, husband, mom and dad, etc..). So for the past 3 weeks she spent $ 30 and gotten nothing for it. When I asked her how much she usually wins she smiles and proudly tells me that she at least, wins $3 back - most of the time. This is hilarious not just because she thinks occasionally getting 3 dollars from spending 10 dollars a week constitutes a win, it’s because she works in a bank :)
According to her she’s been consistently playing the lottery twice a week for 11 years now. So at $10 a week - that’s $520 a year. So doing the numbers we find that the same $10 a week pastime would be worth $8,795 now if it was placed in an 8% non-taxable retirement account at 8% compounded monthly. For comparison, the most she’s ever won-$100 in 2004.
It’s about a 1 in 5 million chance to win the lottery jackpot (42 numbers to choose from, choose 6). Those are some odds. Here are some other interesting odds (From the book Life: The Odds: And How to Improve Them by Gregory Baer-an entertaining read) :
Odds of being struck by lightning: 1 in 576,000
Odds of dating a supermodel: 1 in 88,000
Odds of an American home having at least one container of ice cream in the freezer: 9 in 10
Odds of writing a New York Times best seller: 1 in 220
Odds of finding a four-leaf clover on the first try: 1 in 10,000
Odds of being killed by lightning: 1 in 2,320,000
Odds of being murdered: 1 in 18,000
Odds of getting away with murder: 1 in 2
Odds of being attacked by a dog: 1 in 131,890
Odds of dying from a dog bite: 1 in 700,000
Odds of being bitten by a snake, bee or other venomous creature: 1 in 83,930
Odds of dying from being bitten or struck by mammals (other than dogs or humans): 1 in 4,235,477
Odds of dying from a shark attack: 1 in 300,000,000
Odds of having fraternal twins: 3 in 1,000 (for a woman younger than 20)
Odds of having fraternal twins: 14 in 1,000 (for women ages 35-40)
Odds that a person between the age of 18 and 29 does not read a newspaper regularly: 1 in 3
Odds that an adult does not want to live to age 120 under any circumstances: 2 in 3
Odds of being considered possessed by Satan: 1 in 7,000
Odds that a first marriage will survive without separation or divorce for 15 years: 1 in 1.3
Odds that a celebrity marriage will last a lifetime: 1 in 3
Odds of getting hemorrhoids: 1 in 25
Odds of being born a twin in North America: 1 in 90
Odds of being on plane with a drunken pilot: 1 in 117
Odds of being audited by the IRS: 1 in 175
Odds of having your identity stolen: 1 in 200
Odds of finding out your child is a genius: 1 in 250
Odds of catching a ball at a major league ballgame: 1 in 563
Odds of becoming a pro athlete: 1 in 22,000
Odds of a person in the military winning the Medal of Honor: 1 in 11,000
Odds of winning an Academy Award: 1 in 11,500
Odds of striking it rich on Antiques Roadshow: 1 in 60,000
Odds of getting a royal flush in poker on first five cards dealt: 1 in 649,740
Odds of becoming a saint: 1 in 20,000,000
Odds of becoming president: 1 in 10,000,000
Odds of a meteor landing on your house: 1 in 182,138,880,000,000
Odds of dying from intentional self-harm: 1 in 9,380
Odds that Earth will experience a catastrophic collision with an asteroid in the next 100 years: 1 in 5,560
Odds of dying in such a collision: 1 in 20,000
Odds of experiencing an earthquake: 1 in 100,000
Odds of dying from exposure to forces of nature (heat, cold, lightning, earthquake, flood): 1 in 225,107
Odds of dying in an airplane accident: 1 in 354,319
Odds of dying from choking on food: 1 in 370,035
Odds of dying in a fireworks accident: 1 in 1,000,000
Odds of dying from overexertion, travel or privation: 1 in 1,428,377
Odds of dying from food poisoning: 1 in 3,000,000
Odds of dying from legal execution: 1 in 3,441,325
Odds of dying from parts falling off an airplane: 1 in 10,000,000
Odds of dying from ignition or melting of nightwear: 1 in 30,589,556
Odds of spotting a UFO today: 1 in 3,000,000
Odds of contracting the human version of mad cow disease: 1 in 40,000,000
Odds of injury from fireworks: 1 in 19,556
Odds of injury from shaving: 1 in 6,585
Odds of injury from using a chain saw: 1 in 4,464
Odds of injury from mowing the lawn: 1 in 3,623
Odds of fatally slipping in bath or shower: 1 in 2,232
Odds of drowning in a bathtub: 1 in 685,000
Odds of being the victim of serious crime in your lifetime: 1 in 20
Odds of dying from a car accident: 1 in 18,585
Odds of dying from any kind of fall: 1 in 20,666
Odds of dying from accidental drowning: 1 in 79,065
As for my friend the lotto jockey? Although not dropping it completely, she’s cutting back her expensive pastime to $5 a week. Now what were the odds of that happening? About 1 in 8,795 
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